Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the business of election betting on Making Money.
While polls show the 2024 presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is neck and neck ahead of Election Day, the GOP nominee is heavily favored to win in nearly all betting markets.
Traders on crypto-based Polymarket, the largest prediction market, saw Trump as having a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House as of Monday afternoon, compared to Harris’ 41.9%.
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures while walking onstage for a campaign rally on Oct. 12, 2024 in Coachella, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images / Getty Images)
On U.S.-based platform Kalshi, traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris’ 45%.
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Trump is also projected to win, according to every prediction market tracked by RealClearPolitics. RCP betting odds data collectively gives the former president a 57.9% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 40.7%.
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on November 2, 2024. (CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
However, there is one notable exception. Bettors on PredictIt slightly favored Harris, giving the vice president a 55% chance of winning compared to 53% for Trump on the eve of Election Day.
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Critics argue that election-based betting markets are a threat to democracy, but proponents claim they serve as a better gauge on the outcome of a race than polls.
GOP pollster Mitchell Brown discusses Trump and Harris’ standing in the latest polls in key swing states.
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The last national poll conducted by NBC News released over the weekend showed Trump and Harris in a dead heat, each favored by 49% of Americans, with 2% of voters saying they are still undecided.
