Cameron Mitchell Restaurants founder and CEO Cameron Mitchell unpacks the impact of the the disease on the cost of goods on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Elevated egg prices are expected to persist throughout 2025 as supply shortages continue, according to industry experts.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted that egg prices, which can fluctuate significantly month to month, will rise by more than 20% in 2025.
The outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) – or bird flu – that began in 2022 and have persisted into 2025, are to blame. Experts tell FOX Business that cases of bird flu have significantly reduced the U.S. laying egg flock, which is pushing prices higher at the store.
BIRD FLU VACCINE: WHAT TO KNOW
To put this in perspective, prices were 36.8% higher in December 2024 than they were a year earlier, although they were still below peak prices in January 2023, according to the USDA.
“When detections are high, lower egg supplies will drive prices higher,” Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Foundation, told FOX Business, adding that “egg prices have been riding the waves of avian influenza since this outbreak began and this is likely to continue.”
Egg cartoons at Key Food in the Upper East Side neighborhood of Manhattan on Jan 27, 2025. (Fox News / Angelica Stabile / Fox News)
Nelson estimated that more than 136 million birds have been affected by avian influenza since 2022. In December, there were over 18 million birds affected, which he said led to “bare grocery shelves in some places and widespread higher prices.”
Kevin Bergquist, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, also raised concerns that the recent rash of even more bird flu cases in late 2024 and thus far in 2025 are still driving the flock numbers lower.
The issue is when bird flu is detected, the entire flock is depopulated to prevent the disease from spreading and to ensure no infected birds enter the food supply.
The USDA said the disease is highly contagious with one bird being capable of spreading it “from flock to flock within a matter of days.” Depopulating or euthanizing affected animals is “one of the most effective ways to stop disease spread and protect U.S. animal health as a whole,” the agency said.
Egg cartoons at Key Food in the Upper East Side neighborhood of Manhattan on Jan 27, 2025. (Fox News / Angelica Stabile )
US EGG PRODUCTION DROPS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG WITH BIRD FLU CASES
Nelson and Bergquist said it takes several months to sterilize the layer facilities and repopulate the location with birds capable of laying eggs.
Egg cartoons at Key Food in the Upper East Side neighborhood of Manhattan on Jan 27, 2025. (Fox News / Angelica Stabile / Fox News)
“Often, laying hen operations are concentrated with well over a million birds located on a single site. So, if HPAI hits a particular location, that whole flock is lost,” Bergquist said. The loss of many hens also puts pressure on the supply of new chicks, he added.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
Even after a detection is resolved, there is a mandatory quarantine period of 21 days. Then, a chicken needs to be about 18 weeks old before it can begin to lay eggs, meaning it takes more time to bring a flock back into production, Nelson said.
Bergquist said it is likely that additional bird flu outbreaks will occur in the next few months, which “resets the number of laying hens lower, sometimes by millions of layers at a time. Fewer birds mean fewer eggs, sustaining the pricing pressure,” Bergquist added.
