Harris Financial Group managing director Jamie Cox analyzes post-Thanksgiving markets, retail and jobs sectors and the bitcoin rally.
U.S. job growth rebounded in November with strong payroll gains after the lackluster October jobs report reflected labor disruptions due to hurricanes and union strikes.
The Labor Department reported on Friday that employers added 227,000 jobs in November, beating the prediction made by LSEG economists.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2%, up from 4.1% a month ago, also in line with expectations.
The number of jobs added in the prior two months were both revised higher, with job creation in September revised up by 32,000 from a gain of 223,000 to 255,000, while October was revised up by 24,000 from a gain of 12,000 to 36,000.
Private sector payrolls added 194,000 jobs in November, just shy of the 200,000 estimated by LSEG economists.
The manufacturing sector saw employment rise by 22,000 jobs in November, including an increase of 32,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing following the return of workers who were on strike.
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That follows a decline of 46,000 manufacturing jobs in October, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed largely to strike activity in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, as about 33,000 unionized machinists at Boeing were on strike from early September to early November.
Health care added 53,600 jobs in November, in line with the sector’s average monthly gain of 59,000 over the prior 12 months. Within the sector, ambulatory health care services added 22,400 jobs, including 16,000 jobs in home health care services, while employment also rose in hospitals (+19,300) and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,900).
Health care added 53,600 jobs in November, in line with the sector’s average monthly gain of 59,000 over the prior 12 months. (Photo by: Jeff Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Leisure and hospitality employment rose by 53,000 jobs in November after it was little changed from the prior month. That figure is above the average of 21,000 jobs added per month in the sector over the last 12 months, with most of the gain occurring at food services and drinking places (+28,900).
Government employment rose by 33,000 jobs in November, with the growth concentrated in state government (+20,000). The government sector’s gains were mostly in line with the 12-month average gain of 41,000.
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The social assistance sector added 18,700 jobs in November, of which 17,200 jobs were in individual and family services.
Employment was little changed in construction (+10,000 jobs), financial activities (+17,000), and transportation and warehousing (+3,400).
The retail sector lost 28,000 jobs in November after it showed little net change in employment levels over the past 12 months. Much of the decline occurred in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), while electronics and appliance retailers added 3,600 jobs to offset some of the sector’s losses.
The retail sector lost 28,000 jobs in November after it showed little net change in employment levels over the past 12 months. (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The labor force participation rate was 62.5% in November, having shown little change in the last year, with it remaining in a narrow range of 62.5% to 62.7% from December 2023.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents, or 0.4%, to $35.61. In the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 4%.
The number of people considered to be long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.7 million in November compared with a month ago. The figure is up 1.2 million from last year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.2% of all unemployed people in November.
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November’s jobs report comes as the Federal Reserve is due to meet in mid-December to discuss a potential interest rate cut. The market’s expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points rose following the jobs report release, with the probability rising from 71% a day ago to 87% as of Friday morning, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“The economy continues to produce a healthy amount of job and income gains, but a further increase in the unemployment rate tempers some of the shine in the labor market and gives the Fed what it needs to cut rates in December,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
